Global AuM Ends 2025 at USD 155 tr. Growth Outlook for 2026 Above Trend

2025 Estimates

Lamb Quantitative Research (LQR) estimates that assets under management (AuM) of global asset managers ended 2025 at USD 155 trillion - a new high water mark - with USD 12.3 trillion dollars added in 2025, a rise of 8.6%.

Consequently, the average asset manager may be able to report some profit growth for 2025. Profitability has been challenging over the last decade. Persistent and predictable AuM margin decline (3.9% p.a.) and rising costs (at 3.4% p.a.) have limited profit growth. Moreover, AuM growth has been skewed to the large U.S. managers since 2019.

We will document the industry's results in April, when asset managers have completed their year-end reporting.

The weakness in the USD during 2025 will exaggerate AuM, profits, and other accounting metrics for U.S. managers with AuM invested outside the U.S., and detract from results for non-USD denominated asset managers. While the S&P 500 total return index rose almost 19% in local currency, it rose only 4.6% in Swiss Franc terms. For comparison, the Swiss SMI total return index rose 18% in local currency terms.

2026 AuM Forecast

LQR forecasts global AuM to reach USD 161 trillion at the end of 2026, adding another USD 6 trillion or 4.1%.

This is based on (1) the consensus average year-end S&P 500 forecast surveyed by Bloomberg, and (2) global AuM's positive correlation with this index. The aggressive Bloomberg consensus is above trend (8.6% total return p.a. from 1990).

These forecasts are volatile. The 95% prediction interval range is +2% to +24% of the 2026 AuM figure. At the start of 2025, LQR estimated 2025 AuM growth would be +2%. This was below actual growth at +8.6% growth, but still well within 2025's confidence intervals.

Low Value Creation

Global industry profits have hardly risen since 2012, only 2.9% p.a. in nominal terms. In real terms, factoring in average global inflation over the period of 4.3%, real profits have declined 1.4% p.a.

The predicted above-trend increase in AuM in 2026 may even be sufficient to offset rising costs, industry AuM margin decline, and lack in innovation.

Global Net Inflows

Global net inflows will have been 1.7% of global AuM in 2025 - below the 3.8% in 2024 and below trend of 2.6%.

The majority of AuM growth in 2025 came from market returns rather than inflows.

We expect 2026 inflows to be around 1.4% of global AuM. Global industry net inflows are strongly negatively correlated with specific interest rates.

Happy New Year.

Further details in "Global Asset Management Industry Report: Financials 2025" and "Global Asset Management Industry Report: Fundamental Analysis 2025"

Source: Lamb Quantitative Research (www.lambqr.com)